The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Flat-to-lower.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s multiple double-digit swings were nonetheless contained within the late-afternoon range. A breakout attempt occurred within 30-60-90 minutes of Thursday’s open, which is our Globex range late breakout setup. Waiting so long to both breaking the overnight range tends to be false. Which it was, reversing back into and through the wide overnight range. Not before the false breakout could be very productive, probing under Wednesday’s 2686.25 low to attack 2671.00. Its recovery back up to 2711.00 was corrected during the noon hour, then recovered further to enter the afternoon bias environment above the 2717.00 overnight high. Ultimately, the recovery extended to attack 2737.00 into the bias environment exit, which was retested after dipping to 2711.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively narrow 9-point range between 2722.50-2731.50 persisted through Europe’s opens, before finally breaking one way or the other. That eventual break is lower, attacking 2714.00, under this morning’s 2717.75 bias-down target. It’s more than 61.8% beyond the earlier overnight range, but only now challenging the lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A second consecutive lower close Thursday would have confirmed Wednesday’s preliminary signal that the trend was extending down. The rejection can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But the setup offers only a narrow window to leverage the trapped sellers into attracting strong-handed buyers that actually reverse the trend up. More so today, because the bearish WedEX is scheduled to influence this afternoon’s price action. Not already rallying this morning would make that afternoon influence capable of resuming the week-old decline. Extending the rally up to a more defensible position can’t afford to wait too long before beginning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2719.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2724.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2726.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.