The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Focus on its timing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pattern had reflected sharply disparate opinion being expressed, likely to explode in one direction or the other. The resolution didn’t have to be immediate, but it was. S&Ps were down 106 points through Wednesday’s cash session close to 2780.00. Tuesday had closed at 2886.00-2888.00 and last week’s highs were 2942.00-2945.00. Causes range from rising rates, tighter falling unemployment, and vice versa, to widespread accelerated dumping of FAANGs and other tech stocks, which we began anticipating with August’s earnings reactions to NFLX and FB. Their charts reflect no accumulation through Wednesday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending slightly (relatively!) lower held 2771.00 for awhile, then broke sharply lower to within 1 point of the next set of “lower prior highs” begins at 2749.00. All of which was eventually retraced by rallying into and out of Europe’s opens back up to natural resistance at yesterday’s 2780.00 close. All of which was soon retraced to probe 2 points under 2749.00. Its reaction up to 2763.50 seems to be failing.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
August’s probe above January’s high is gone, after being tested as support both last month and last week. Overnight lows have tested, retested, and re-retested the next set of lower prior highs at 2749.00, that I identified at yesterday’s Market Wrap. That’s where a “buy-the-dip” mentality would have been likely, as it has been overnight. Holding its test through the open would allow a corrective bounce. My biggest concern with buying today is the drop’s midweek timing, which doesn’t inhibit reinforcements, fueling the perpetual motion machinery into and out of the weekend. Meanwhile, also, public focus is being diluted by coverage of Hurricane Michael’s Florida devastation, which is exceeding expectations. Breaking under 2749.00 — now, or later — would target a cluster of objectives and support around 2721.00. Closing under 2709.00 could spell near-term doom.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2762.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2769.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2773.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2778.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.