The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Follow-through.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open stretched the rubber band. Just a little, immediately fulfilling the morning’s 2741.50 bias-up target. Then it snapped back down. Just a little, filling the gap back to Monday’s close, which was at the upper-end of last Monday afternoon’s 2725.00-2732.00 consolidation. That stopped short of retracing the entire overnight rally. But the afternoon bias environment’s exit at 2737.50 made up for the delay, sliding through the close down to 2721.50 support. Bouncing through the close touched 2727.25 resistance, but didn’t recover it.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending down without delay was likely, as we discussed at yesterday’s close. Satisfying an objective but not yet retracing its last support (or resistance) tends to invite reinforcements. Last night’s action fulfilled this setup, eventually resuming the decline to test fresh lows at 2717.00. Bouncing ahead of Europe’s opens (NO defensive posturing) resolved down sharply, resuming the decline to 2704.50.
If, then…
2704.50 is an important area. Its test formed the week-old low that ended the prior drop from 2741.00. Now yesterday’s retest of 2741.00 has formed a Double Top, making the 2704.50 area its interim low. After correcting the pattern with a drop targeting 2675.50-2677.25, the rally often resumes. Not always — a Double Top can be durable. Resuming the rally before fully probing the Double Bottom’s interim low can make its eventual top more durable. The downside can quickly unfold if post-open bounces hold Thursday-Friday’s 2712.00-2713.00 “higher prior lows” as resistance. Otherwise, any bullish scenario at least requires recovering 2717.00. Meanwhile, the impending 3-day holiday weekend’s seasonal bullishness (i.e. flat-to-higher influence) makes today THE day for bigger money to position during maximum liquidity. So, holding or breaking the interim low’s test today would likely dictate price action into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2711.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2713.00 bias-down target through 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal.