The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Foreshadowing?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up and probe of fresh highs was rejected after fulfilling the morning’s 2730.00 bias-up target up to 2732.50. Its reversal probed the open’s 2720.00 low by 1 point during the noon hour. The afternoon bias environment dipped 2-4 points into negative territory to 2716.75. But the trend never reversed down. And the balance of the session rallied 10-13 points up to 2727.00-2730.00. It was the first close above the rally’s 2721.50 target, although it was still being overlapped.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open spiked up to 2736.00, and consolidated briefly down to 2733.50. Gradually firming extended higher to pierce Monday morning’s 2739.25 bias-up target by a couple of ticks. Its 2-point pullback recovered to 2741.00 after midnight, but price action since then has trended back down to 2733.50.
If, then…
Friday’s pullback was relatively shallow to correct the two strong days preceding it. It wasn’t too brief, except that Fridays are already less relevant. So, this leaves the question whether resuming the rally requires a deeper pullback. And a deeper pullback would raise the question whether the rally had ended already, and the deeper pullback is actually the trend reversing down. Avoiding any dip to immediately extend higher can’t afford to hesitate, or else it would be vulnerable — if not likely — to duplicate Friday morning’s temporary rally, but with a more permanent reversal down. Greeting the open in negative territory could mean that last night’s action produced that temporary rally, and has reversed the trend down. Extending the rally depends largely on maintaining excessive optimism.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2737.50 would be likely to trigger the 2733.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2729.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.