The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gapping up, indeed.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
China trade and Brexit probably helped Friday’s opening gap up to 2836.00, testing 3-day old highs by 1 point. But only momentarily as price began dipping to test 1-day old highs down to 2823.00. Quarter-end portfolio window dressing probably supported flat-to-higher ranging up to 2834.00 through late-afternoon. Blipping-up into the last 90 minutes to 2840.00 was retested after the close, which was otherwise still overlapping the opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up above the bias-up signal to 2844.50 and spiked higher immediately through the bias-up target to attack 2854.00. Trending higher touched 2860.00 and reacted back down to 2854.50 through midnight. A fresh high up to 2861.25 has also reacted back down to 2854.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s equilibrium close and ineffectual optimism could be overcome only by gapping up. The reward would be to retest two-week old highs, at least up to 2855.00, probably also the gap-fill back to the 2861.00-2863.00 high close, if not also to probe the two-week old 2866.00 prior high (to 2869.00). All but the latter was done overnight. Which makes a second consecutive close back above 2019.50 less significant to rejecting the week-old bearish trend change: Gapping up to resistance instead of trending there is difficult to attract reinforcements, and upside momentum is jeopardized by touching resistance without also exceeding it through a timing window. Regardless, closing back under 2013.00-2019.50 Monday isn’t necessary to confirm the trend is reversing down, but shouldn’t be far behind if the two-week old distribution pattern — of reversing intraday rallies — confronts Monday’s rally attempt. Wouldn’t THAT be the perfect April Fool’s Day prank.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2853.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2848.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2855.00. Exiting the open above 2845.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2842.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.