The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Half the record left.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s low had fulfilled the decline’s next lower objectives at 2361.00 and 2345.00, but that didn’t prevent Tuesday night’s open from plunging to test 2317.00. It wasn’t a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, and Wednesday’s post-open surged to 2387.00. A reaction down filled the gap back to Monday’s 2352.00 cash session close, which held through the morning. Rallying into the noon hour probed fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment, which rejected before entering the final hour. More than marginalizing sellers, this setup creates a vulnerability to extend the intraday trend, which it did by adding 55 points to attack 2478.00. That is almost half of yesterday’s net gain.

Overnight action’s new info…
The first reaction to Wednesday’s final hour 55-point surge was to retrace it by 61.8% and attack 2456.00. Consolidating until midnight surged to probe a fresh high up to 2481.50. A brief, fresh high that was soon retraced to 2456.00. Then through it, into and out of Europe’s opens, retracing all of the last 55-point surge back under 2423.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Bending a familiar phrase: What can go up a lot, can go down a lot. Large intraday moves reflect not only an oversold or overbought condition, but also the range for play. Wednesday’s record-setting 161-point rally from Tuesday night’s low reflects the degree of having been oversold, and the room for noise. It also rewarded buyers for absorbing sellers, apparently too much, too soon, to be maintained. Wednesday’s last intraday upleg was no different in principle than Sunday night or Tuesday night’s opening plunges which created extremes. Some degree of pullback was likely since trend reversals aren’t signaled by the same session that contains a prior trend’s extreme — and a resuming the decline is still possible since yesterday’s rally doesn’t yet qualify as a trend reversal. And there’s still room up to 2525.00 and 2607.00 without yet qualifying as more than a temporary correction that resumes the decline. Meanwhile, Wednesday was day-9 of what may be an Up/Down-Crash setup forming, which can be disqualified by a second consecutive up-day today. Regardless, I’m still reluctant to pronounce a bottom forming without there first being a capitulative session, or two.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2440.25 would be unlikely to recover the 2448.25 bias-down target at 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2461.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2454.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.