The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Help wanted: Effective optimists.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday morning’s gap down tested 2899.00 and soon recovered back up to being unchanged from Thursday’s 2908.50 close. Ranging narrowly flat-to-higher out of the bias environment still continued overlapping 2908.50. Finally breaking free in the last half-hour surged to 2912.75, just enough for Monday not to be a clean “inside day.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Although Monday’s late surge to 2912.75 was largely retraced before the close, it was immediately extending just a little higher to 2915.00 after the close. That only stretched the rubber band, as an even deeper retracement soon extended down to 2908.00. Its reaction only attacked 2915.00 before dropping back down to 2909.00 through Europe’s opens — which continues to be tested as support.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Fluctuating overnight around yesterday’s close may seem neutral, but its underlying optimism is preventing Monday’s late surge from reversing down. Not yet extending higher isn’t surprising, as was noted at the time, the internal breakout’s timing reflected weak-handed sponsorship. Not so weak-handed that it can’t attract reinforcements, but so weak-handed that not attracting reinforcements would face the likely consequence of retracing yesterday’s recovery from 2899.00. At least. Extending higher this morning without delay would confirm yesterday’s late breakout attempt, targeting fresh highs at 2926.50-2928.00. Meanwhile, having only ranged sideways overnight, the timing of breaking out from the range will be predictive. Regardless of direction, breaking out within 60-90 minutes of the open tends to be false, at least initially if not also ultimately.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2911.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2914.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2908.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2906.00 bias-down signal.