The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… In like a lion, indeed.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s market was range bound without any of the week’s earlier volatility catalysts. Range bound, but still choppy, resisted by 2793.00-2794.00. An overnight swing down to 2781.75 was nevertheless contained within Wednesday’s range, which contained Thursday morning’s swing down to 2783.50. The afternoon’s swing was even narrower, although the last 3:37-3:52 Position-squaring window collapsed momentarily to pierce the morning’s lows at 2782.75. Gapping down and ranging exclusively in negative territory suggests that weak hands are bearish, meaning strong hands are bulls. Not quite a buy signal, but reinforcing an immediately bullish move Friday. The narrowing extended range has limited predictive value otherwise.

Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately bullish moves don’t get much more immediate than this. Thursday’s late dip had bounced 6 points through the close to prove its weak-handed sponsorship. Globex immediately dipped back down to attack the late intraday low to within 1 tick, but no lower, and immediately began recovering. Thursday’s highs were soon probed up to 2795.50, and then to 2798.50, hovering there through midnight. Another push higher to 2802.50 just after Europe’s opens immediately began hovering there, too.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
March is coming in like a lion, and that’s not just a favorable comparison to yesterday’s inside day. The post-close Market Tour pointed out that with Thursday’s narrowing range behind, and weekend illiquidity ahead, credible trending would have to appear sooner rather than later Friday. Based on the overnight levels of influential resistance, the pattern’s next higher objective would neutralize the outstanding gap back up to Monday’s 2808.00 open. One challenge in this setup will be in attracting post-open reinforcements, which is hardly assured after having trended relentlessly overnight. That resolution will then be influenced by Friday Factors, which help the open’s bias to persist through the noon hour. Bias-up seems very likely to trigger, but not necessarily bias-up renewed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2796.00 would be unlikely to exceed the 2798.00 bias-up target at 10:15 or to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2800.50 would be likely to exceed 2798.00 at 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal.