The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Is yesterday’s elephant still in the room?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s open had gapped up above all prior highs for the second consecutive week, triggered by a last-minute Trump China trade tweet, also for the second consecutive week. The rule of alternating resolutions ruled out extending higher. The overnight pullback from attacking 2820.00 to test 2810.00 still allowed for a post-open retest of the overnight high, but it was only attacked while fulfilling the morning’s 2817.50 bias-up target. Monday morning’s late bias-up signal didn’t prevent trending down sharply to exit the bias environment under its bias-down signal, negating a retest of the bias-up signal. Extending through the noon hour to 2767.50 encompassing all of the prior 6 sessions. The afternoon bounce retraced half of the earlier high-to-low drop, ending at 2792.00, and proving this rally has been probing thin air.

Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s recovery up to 2794.50 began retracing back down through the futures close and into the Globex open, eventually attacking 2785.00. All of which was recovered to greet Europe’s opens back at 2794.50. Extending higher this time to 2799.00 is now trying to hold 2794.50 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s plunge was quite a shock to the system. That can inhibit and squelch volatility, but usually not until 1-2 days more of shock. And not necessarily in a straight line, or even back to either end of yesterday’s very wide range. The extended bounce described at yesterday’s close has developed overnight, but that doesn’t reverse the trend up. The greeting given the last two rallies up to 2803.00-2805.00 suggest peaking there if tested, without first having to be probed. Regardless, there is no “unfinished business” above, but that doesn’t necessarily resolve in an immediate collapse. Meanwhile, there was no bullish reason yesterday to revisit last Wednesday’s test of 2777.00 support, which now has less support if met again. Emphasis on “if met again,” since yesterday afternoon’s recovery did avoid a closing under Wednesday’s low, which Monday’s new high has made the new line in the sand for signaling a trend change.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2798.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2800.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.