The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Isolation opportunity.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The week started by tracking the topping template of testing 2681.00 and rejecting it back under 2677.00. The reversal was likely but not required. And it had to develop through a relevant timing window, which it did, as the morning slid to 2663.00 and the afternoon extended down to 2646.00. The reversal was likely a delayed reaction to headlines announcing Netanyahu’s planned speech, and the speech’s eventual delivery helped the decline to extend sharply lower. An anchor of sorts had formed by holding above 2677.00 through the morning’s bias timing window, which was capable of launching another probe of fresh highs. So, there is a question outstanding whether the decline was artificial and recoverable, or organic and on its way lower.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s late 13-point drop from 2659.00 to 2646.00 extended without delay to 2641.25 through the Globex open. That leg was retraced by 61.8% to attack 2654.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. But Europe’s open were having none of it, and the earlier low was attacked to within 3 ticks. Now that leg has been retraced by 61.8% to 2649.25.
If, then…
Monday’s decline didn’t gain traction, so gapping up above its 2658.50 prior highs would likely reverse the trend back up. That’s not currently indicated, but for future reference, the minimum reward for reversing yesterday’s trend before it gains traction would be to probe fresh highs up to 2684.25. It would also prove the decline’s catalyst was artificial. I noted in yesterday’s Market Wrap that the artificial catalyst can still be productive down to 2641.50-2641.75, which overnight action has now tested — and its test was clearly influential by the bounce it produced. A temporary bounce, but maintaining an open above yesterday’s 2646.00 low can isolate the overnight probe and try reversing the trend up. Not yet reversing up through Tuesday’s open would next target 2635.00-2638.00. And then 2623.00, back into position for toppling the dominoes below.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2650.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2642.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2641.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2656.75 would be likely to trigger the 2653.25 bias-up signal.