The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Isolation reversal setup, or else.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted in negative territory, but its reaction attacked Thursday’s 2699.00 closing high pre-open. A little post-open relief rally into positive territory was likely regardless of its resolution. Almost immediately attacking the 2711.00 bias-up target to within 5 ticks began reversing down almost immediately. And then relentlessly. The final hour was greeted 86-1/2 points lower attacking 2623.00. The final hour’s reaction stopped 4 points short of 2656.00 which could have signaled sellers were waning. Closing above 2626.00 (at 2633.50-2636.00) avoided signaling a new lower target is in-play.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down to 2625.00, just above Friday’s low, then probed lower to attack 2610.00. Down 23-26 points, probing fresh low, all before the first hour had lapsed. That was also the low. Hovering in a narrow range up to 2621.00, and under Friday’s lows started breaking higher into Europe’s opens, first attacking and later testing 2632.00. Stopping pessimistically short of unchanged, still too early to be considered bullish from a contrarian perspective.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not formally putting into play the next lower objective (October’s 2603.00 low) didn’t equate to ending the decline, let alone to reversing the trend back up. Friday’s close was in the process of retesting Thanksgiving’s prior low, for which there already is no bullish reason. Its eventual break and a retest of 2603.00 is inevitable, but the path or paths aren’t yet set. Isolating last night’s probe under Friday’s range would suggest another detour has entered the path down, at least for this morning if not also through tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, the likelier template is that the decline is awaiting the intraday session — more likely, just its appearance over the horizon — before resuming.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2625.25 would be likely to trigger the 2628.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2635.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.