The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Isolation setup getting isolated.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open was greeted back above the 2783.00-2784.00 support that had defined Monday-Wednesday’s lower-ends. That is, until Wednesday’s late break down to 2779.00-2780.00. Gapping back up and maintaining it formed an Isolation setup that would prevent sellers from gaining any traction for their efforts. But it couldn’t prevent them from trying, which is usual on the Isolation setup’s morning. So, a post-open surge up to 2794.00 reacted back down to 2781.00. Although the dip was recovered by noon to within ticks of the 2790.50 open, the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways. And that is NOT usual for the Isolation setup’s afternoon. But it’s not yet disqualifying to maintain its objective to retest Wednesday’s 2796.00 high, and incidentally also unfinished business above at 2798.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s last swing ended back within ticks of the 2790.50 open. A hold-long setup narrowly avoided triggering. So, a dip initially returned down into the 2783.00-2784.00 range, and then recovered back up to the 2788.00-2788.75 range. But no overnight strength developed that would have been credible for extending higher. Which was explained at Europe’s opens, as forthcoming US trade tariffs on China are being blamed for triggering a quick slide to 2773.50. (Rumors are also surfacing of Merkel’s government being on the verge of collapse.) A blip-down just briefly probed a fresh low down to 2772.00.

If, then…
Avoiding a hold-long setup at yesterday’s close only indicated the vulnerability to overnight weakness, but it didn’t predict a drop. And now the market is responding to headlines that are not new, so they are already somewhat discounted. Which is not to say the market isn’t justified in discounting them more, but those discounted dips often snap back up. Meanwhile, there’s a race between fulfilling a couple of upside attractions, and eventually fulfilling the distribution that we’ve been discussing for the past two week. We’re still expecting a bearish WedEX influence this afternoon, regardless of the environment or level that greets it. In the interim, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through Friday’s noon hour. Other Friday Factors will be relevant, too. Like sponsorship being difficult to generate, and counter-trend sponsorship being more difficult. But counter-trend sponsorship always becomes easier to generate at a test of support/resistance. So, cobbling together a morning rally would still have plenty of resistance above.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2783.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2782.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2778.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2774.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2775.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.