The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… It’s Monday, so, bears.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The ongoing series of intraday distribution remained alive and well going into Easter/Passover weekend. As did the ongoing series of gapping up. Thursday’s open was greeted near the end of a 22-point rally from overnight lows to 2911.75. Almost all of its 17-point retracement down to 2895.00 was done during the session’s first hour. Sellers failed 2-3 attempts to convert that retracement into a reversal, which told us to expect the drop’s recovery. And it was, to within 1 tick, while the afternoon ranged choppily sideways around 2910.00 into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday’s open gapped down momentarily a little to 2907.50, then spiked up 5-points to probe fresh highs attacking 2916.00. Nice try. It was all errant ticks above the 2914.25 bias-up signal, which held its retest. A 13-point collapse down to 2901.00 suddenly found itself consolidating under Friday afternoon’s range. A bounce to 2907.50 has resolved back down to 2901.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Two or three bearish setups are threatening to greet the open. The week’s final afternoon of choppy sideways ranging didn’t provide optimal confirmation to the bearish WedEX. Nor was it invalidated. Nevertheless, regardless of gapping up, trending down through the first half of Monday’s opening 15 minutes of volatility would get a benefit of the doubt for trending down aggressively through the balance of the morning. The downside would be helped by completing a bearish Globex-flip setup, after the overnight probe above Friday’s highs is rejected back under Sunday night’s 2907.50 earlier Globex low. And that could trigger the bias-down signal just 6 ticks lower. Meanwhile, recovering in time to avoid the Globex-flip, and any other of the bearish setups, could be as bullish as they otherwise would have been bearish — likely to probe higher highs, not only to Wednesday’s 2923.00 gap up, but also its room for noise up to 2926.50-2928.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2906.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2910.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.