The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Last gasp?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The decline’s next lower objective at 2749.00 had been thoroughly tested overnight. But already rallying before Thursday’s open prevented the open from testing 2749.00. Which also prevented holding a test of 2749.00. Probing positive territory above Wednesday’s 2881.00 and 2892.50 cash session and futures closes peaked upon attacking 2799.00, reversing back down to 2749.00. But it was no longer the open, making its test less likely to hold. So, its reaction up to 2787.50 was reversed down to the next lower objective at 2721.00 and the room for noise under it down to 2712.00. Reaction to a China trade war headline bounced again to 2766.00 still closed back under 2749.00 at 2732.00 at the cash session close, and futures settled at 2745.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming further after the futures close did extend back above 2749.00. Extending relentlessly through the intraday China headline’s peak at 2766.00 touched 2785.00 at Europe’s opens. Reversing from there was also relentless until testing the China headline’s peak down to 2764.00 — still above 2749.00 and well into positive territory.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing under 2749.00 is relevant. If not rejected, then its next lower objective would be in-play. But already having tested its next lower objective at Thursday’s low, confirming Thursday’s close under 2749.00 all but ensures putting into play the next lower objective, which would overshadow this week’s decline. Oversold RSIs already requires retesting Thursday’s  2712.25 low. Neutralizing it before closing back above 2723.25 could be bullish, but not nearly as bullish as then closing back above 2749.00. Closing under 2709.00 would essentially open the floodgates. Rallying overnight to indicate gapping up above 2749.00 is a good start at rejecting Thursday’s close under it. Quickly reversing a swell of optimism at the open would suggest that buyers are expended. Meanwhile, having trended down into yesterday’s cash session close, maintaining a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias-environment high could form a session-long rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2773.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2767.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2752.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2747.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.