The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Last night’s big winner? The market.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Initially probing fresh highs overnight up to 2746.00 had failed to resume Monday’s rally. Later probing lower overnight to 2730.00 also failed to extend down. Extending either would have been likely to trend in that direction. Recovering 2738.00 through the open killed a bearish setup whose rejection would be as bullish as it could have been bearish. The gap back up to Friday’s 2751.25 open was filled almost immediately, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways. The noon hour’s fresh high at 2753.25 was reversed back down to 2738.00 as the bias environment began lapsing. Then it was back up to 2746.00 for more sideways ranging through the close. Oversold RSIs at the afternoon’s 2738.00 low require an eventual retest.

Overnight action’s new info…
Oh, what a night. Not at first, when Globex initially retraced Tuesday’s late surge back down to 2745.00. But that one step backward was followed by two steps forward, literally, when the 15-point dip snapped back up into a 30-point rally attacking 2775.00. Consolidating back down to 2757.00-2758.00 into Europe’s opens launched a 25-point rally to 2787.00. Backing-and-filling for the past 2 hours is testing 2779.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Is this still a correction? Not if the rally extends any higher post-open. And probably not if the open extends higher aggressively. Until then it’s still a correction. First, according to context: this leg’s origin left “unfinished business” below at 2709.50 and 2738.00. Second, according to measurement: the entire recovery is now testing the room for noise beyond a 61.8% retracement of the last downleg up to 2781.00-2787.00. There are other corrective measurements that allow for probing well above 2800.00, but they generally require this morning’s open to surge through last night’s highs. For now, the 2787.00 high and the structure that got here has stretched the correction rubber band to its maximum tightness. NOT reversing back down immediately would instead break the band’s restraint, and visually explode higher. Trading early would get long on almost any opening uptick for the potential of a post-open short-squeeze — but with a relatively tight stop, and a not-too-distant short-entry below just in case that initial strength is isolated and rejected during the first 3-4 minutes, and then reversed down sharply. Trading early would also short almost opening downtick not holding the pre-open pullback lows.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Current price action is far removed from this morning’s bias parameters.