The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Late resumption.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was greeted by a recovery up to 2645.00 from Sunday night’s 23-26 point probe into negative territory down to 2909.50. Half of the earlier loss was under Thu-Fri’s lows. Actually, the recovery was already failing, struggling to hold unchanged. A post-open blip-up retraced 61.8% of the pre-open dip, and the failing resumed. Overnight lows were attacked, and then probed 20 points October’s 2603.00 prior low to 2583.00. Oversold RSIs at the low were left outstanding as the balance of the session reversed back up to probe the pre-open high up to 2648.50. The close maintained the afternoon’s trending series of higher highs and higher lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Backing-and-filling through midnight fell to 2638.50-2630.00, where trending would have reversed down intraday. Its support held as the range narrowed into and out of Europe’s opens. A rally suddenly developed almost 2 hours later, now 2 hours old, trending up relentlessly 30 points to 2665.00. A China trade headline finally claimed to confirm Trump’s previously tweeted car tariff reduction is being implemented. A reaction down after the headline has been followed by a confirming news story, resuming the rally to fresh highs attacking 2670.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FOR TODAY’S LAST HALF-HOUR, SO MARKET WRAP WILL BE HELD EARLY. Is trending higher in the past couple of hours finally resolving Monday’s likeliest template? It was binary, likely either to resume the decline or else to bottom. The decline tried to resume by probing new lows, that ultimately were recovered. The recovery into positive territory did not to close above a prior high. A bottom needed more evidence to be credible — not just intraday, but through the close — and meanwhile remains vulnerable to resuming the decline. A “session-long decline” setup is off the table by not gapping down. The current overnight rally creates room to absorb selling pressure without yet reversing momentum down, so the rally gets a benefit of the doubt so long as no reaction down even threatens negative territory.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2650.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2652.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2657.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2667.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2662.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 2672.00-2675.00.