The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Literally sideways.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s bounce had attacked 2929.00 before dipping into Wednesday’s open. After holding a dip to almost 2920.00, another bounce got to 2930.00 ahead of the FOMC policy statements. Its reaction extended up to 2936.00. And that was the end of that. Dipping into the bias environment exit plunged through the Fed Chair’s Q&A through the final hour down to 2907.50. “Lower prior highs” at 2914.00 was tested, and maintained its break, as did 2919.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Literally, overnight action has ranged sideways. Gradually firming into the Globex session eventually attacked 2916.00 just before midnight. That was retraced gradually back down to touch yesterday’s 2907.50 low through Europe’s opens, as they essentially played “catch-up” to discount yesterday’s late U.S. plunge while they were closed. In the briefer time since then, 2916.00 has been retested, and is still being tested now.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Exiting Thursday’s open above 2914.00–2919.00 would be optimal for a morning bounce, albeit probably not durable. Launching a durable rally would be premature. The pattern’s next lower attraction is 2900.25. Closing under 2919.00 has significantly threatened to become a more substantial drop, which would be validated more so by maintaining the decline’s steepness, and less so by simply closing lower. A recovery would likely begin gradually, and not necessarily be obvious or gain confidence soon. In either case, a probe under yesterday’s low is likely — the sideways overnight range may seem stable, but at this stage it is no more a reflection of strength than was yesterday’s last-minute narrow ranging at the low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2917.00 would be likely to trigger the 2915.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2914.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.