The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Making the effort.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s complete retracement of Thursday’s rally was the resumption of distribution that I began identifying on Monday. Its chart is copied below. Thursday afternoon did not confirm its breakout, because the session’s rise to 2866.00 from a pre-open dip to 2813.75 was only a function of having dumped ballast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Gapping down Friday could have been limited to backing-and-filling ahead of another rally effort into the close or Monday. But its 2830.75 pullback objective resolved down as the morning’s bias environment lapsed. The noon hour’s fresh lows at 2806.50 reacted up 22 points, only for the final hour to retrace it all (yet another failed intraday rally). No “unfinished business” remains above. And Friday’s close was under the prior multi-session consolidation (circled red below), starting to signal the trend reversing down.

Overnight action’s new info…
The weekend’s so-called Russiagate report is favorable to Trump, so an overnight rally was likely. It amounted to gapping up back to 2813.00, and immediately extending 5-1/2 points. That was retraced as quickly almost entirely, and then the decline resumed by collapsing to 2792.00. Ranging sideways up to 2801.00 probed lower through Europe’s opens to attack 2790.00. But only momentarily, as a snap up has extended back above Friday’s lows to test 2810.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s rally could have proved itself by a second consecutive higher close above the week’s range, which it did not. Similarly, now breaking under the week’s range must prove itself by closing lower again on Monday. Of course, it always seems darkest before the dawn. And, more on point, bull markets have a way of stepping right up to the brink, and then reversing. The alternative to falling into this precipice — the most glaring and pronounced precipice since long before the ongoing Christmas rally — avoiding this precipice would suggest resuming the rally to much higher highs. The “dawn” could be an Isolation setup that leaves behind the overnight probe, holding above Friday’s 2805.00-2806.50 lows. The setup is forming now. Meanwhile, Friday’s lows are also resistance, and rejecting an Isolation setup can be as bearish as it would have been bullish.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2812.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2815.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2806.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2803.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2800.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.