The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Miniaturized.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday was greeted by an overnight overly-optimistic reaction to China trade headlines that had rescued an early dip to 2865.00, and reversed it up to 2886.00. That tested the rally’s next higher objective at 2885.00, which triggered a 10-point dip to support. Its recovery tested the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” up to 2889.25 by noon, but no higher which could have put into play the next higher objective. Instead, a deeper pullback fell to 2869.00 at the afternoon low, breaking under the afternoon’s 2881.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The no-bias trending required its retracement, which a very late bounce did after extending through the close. But a retest of the 2884.75 open’s gap up remains outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppiness has been scaled down dramatically since Wednesday’s close, but price is still fluctuating relatively widely. Yesterday’s late bounce had extended to fulfill the 2881.00 retracement up to 2883.00, and then reacted down to 2876.00 by midnight. Extending lower through Europe’s opens touched 2874.00, and reacted up to 2880.00. Price is essentially flat from yesterday’s close.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Extending or reversing the trend will be difficult today if not already underway this morning, before the afternoon becomes inhibited ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report. Except for the “unfinished business” above at yesterday’s 2884.75 open, nothing currently requires extending the rally to its next higher objective at 2902.00. Similarly, nothing yet requires a reaction down to develop into another downleg. Not, yet. But the two-week old distributive range is still being overlapped, and intraday probes of fresh highs are meeting violent reactions down. Violent, albeit limited by either price or duration, which is only a correction until reversed. Was recent distribution  defensive posturing ahead of the quarterly earnings onslaught that starts next week (Or even tomorrow’s Employment Situation report)? Was the China trade headlines normal favorable reaction leveraged by the recent distribution’s ballast dump? Then favorable headlines are still influential and could extend the rally in price, but the distribution’s catalyst should soon limit the rally’s duration.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2879.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.