The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… narrow ranges, say “hello” to Friday Factors.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2928.00 open was on the trajectory of a collapse from 2935.00, coming out of an otherwise sideways overnight range. The first hour fell enough both to renew its bias-down signal, and to fulfill its 2914.25 renewed bias-down target. That was two hours following the last pre-open bounce up to 2935.00, which took 90 minutes to retrace by noon. The balance of the session ranged sideways again, supported by 2930.00, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AMZN and INTC post-close earnings. A last-minute break fell to 2926.00-2928.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute break extended down to 2922.00 at the Globex open, and there began yet another narrow sideways range. A brief reaction up to 2926.50 quickly resolved down and extended to attack 2917.00. The extension was recovered by midnight, and soon 2926.50 was also attacked. Its reaction down through Europe’s opens has now recovered back up to 2926.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yet another narrow sideways range, means another opportunity for the 60-90 minute Globex false breakout setup. Suddenly trending 60-90 minutes pre-open usually retraces back to the overnight range, and often back through it in the opposite direction. Even waiting until the open can reflect weak-handed sponsorship, regardless of its productivity, like yesterday morning’s 21-point collapse that was retraced entirely. Speaking of which, yesterday’s retracement never became a reversal back above the collapse’s 2935.00 origin, but the 2928.00 open was retraced by the bias environment’s exit. That’s another instance (to another degree) of strength that undermines sellers. Undermines sellers, but doesn’t prevent them from attempting to reverse the trend down, like yesterday morning. They’ll need to influence the open and the morning if they intend to influence the day. The alternative won’t necessarily rally, but would be vulnerable to a sudden rally attempt gaining traction — and Fridays are the most vulnerable to sudden trending attempts.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2924.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2920.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.