The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Nerves of molten steel.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open continued this week’s tradition of surging in some way — gapping up, recovering a post-open blip-down, simply surging — and then reversing down. The 13-point dive was measured as much as any previous reversal, but the half-hour timing was its fastest. So fast, that it left time for another bounce to also reverse down, this time 14 points and to fresh session lows. That was recovered to attack Wednesday’s highs, stopping short of a higher close that would have confirmed Wednesday’s breakout. No “unfinished business below” was left outstanding and sellers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Selling has resumed. Fluctuating around the 2774.00-2776.00 close began resolving down before midnight. Europe’s opens were greeted at 2766.50, which is a 61.8% retracement of the Double Bottom at yesterday’s lows. Its natural support held briefly before resolving down sharply to fresh lows at 2755.75. Price has been consolidating back up to the Double Bottom’s 2764.00 low.

If, then…
The trend had not reversed down through yesterday’s close, and yesterday’s sellers had not gained traction for their efforts, leaving potential for bouncing today back up toward yesterday morning’s highs. Probing lower overnight makes bouncing more difficult, but not if yesterday’s lows are holding as support through the open. Gapping down under Thursday afternoon’s lows would gain downside traction by proxy, forming a “session-long decline.” Isolating the fresh lows to the overnight would be bullish. Regardless, I would still beware of potential for an opening surge to fail anyway. Either way, Friday Factors are likely to exaggerate any resolution. Relative performance yesterday between NDX and the Dow will be very bearish if repeated today (I elaborate on this during today’s pre-open Tour, linked above).

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2759.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2761.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2765.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-down at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2770.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.