The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No more ranging.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s inside day and the overnight action preceding it were both pretty volatile. Both contained round trips that recovered entirely from relatively deep, steep dives — 11 points and 14 points, respectively. Tuesday’s intraday pattern had contained a similar sequence, sliding 25 points down to 2722.25 before recovering. Wednesday’s intraday low was also 2722.25, stopping short of the morning’s 2720.25. It became “unfinished business” as the balance of the session ranged choppily above it, closing at 2730.00-2731.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The Globex session’s first order of business was to trend back down to Tuesday-Wednesday’s 2722.25 low. Once again only touching it was sufficient to hold its test. But no bounce developed, only a relatively narrow range through midnight, resisted by what is this morning’s 2725.50 bias-down signal. Probing the range’s lower-end momentarily before Europe’s opens touched Wednesday’s unfinished business at 2720.25 to neutralize it. But its reaction back up to 2725.50 was quickly rejected by a collapse that has now extended down to 2710.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Inside days don’t require resolving within any specific time frame or in either direction. Neither do inside days undermine the underlying trend. So, the rally’s next higher target at 2751.00 remains intact. The only questions are how deep of a rubber band stretch would be enough for its snap back up to resume the rally, and how deep would be enough to invalidate the 2751.00 target. “Lower prior highs” at 2708.00-2709.00 are the first opportunity to launch a reaction back up. The next opportunity would be 2688.00-2690.00, but any lower would start to suggest a much deeper reversal is underway. Two potentially bullish setups have formed. First is the past several sessions’ extended narrowing range, a pattern that often breaks falsely in one direction (down) before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction (up). Second is the relentless overnight trending that can be difficult to attract post-open reinforcements. I’ll have parameters on-screen at the open to identify whether the setups are extending or being rejected.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2715.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2718.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2710.25. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2720.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2725.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.