The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… No pain, and no gain.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Trending down relentlessly overnight often finds no reinforcements at the intraday open, but not Monday. Perhaps thanks to a last-minute 10-point collapse triggered by NVDA’s warning, and already weak overnight greeted Monday’s open down 25 points. That was extended to within 6 ticks of 2625.00, which was later probed into noon down to 2622.00. Reacting up through the close ended at 2643.00 while still overlapping the 2638.50 opening print — like Friday, Monday’s close overlapped the open. No new unfinished business was created.

Overnight action’s new info…
An early dip has been recovered entirely, indicating almost a flat open. Globex had immediately begun retracing Monday afternoon’s bounce, by much more than 61.8% down to 2628.50. Firming into midnight then surged to 2640.00, but retraced 61.8% back down to 2632.00 through Europe’s opens. One more high was recovered back to unchanged at 2642.75, not indicating either a gap up or down.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Almost any overnight weakness was likely to resume the decline through 2625.00. Weakness through Tuesday’s open would get that benefit of the doubt, too. And there’s still no bullish reason to revisit 2625.00, whose probe through a relevant window should find an air pocket likely targeting 2605.00. Perhaps even deeper to compensate for the delay in breaking under 2625.00. Rallying first would have room up to 2645.00-2647.00 before suggesting a bigger detour underway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2635.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2633.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2645.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.