The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not for lack of trying.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
An otherwise unremarkable overnight range at 2872.00-2879.00 had briefly pierced slightly above and below it. And then sharply below it, just  before the open. Suddenly breaking a steady overnight range within 2 hours of the open is often a false break, and touching 2865.00 snapped back up 20 points to reject tests of both bias-down parameters. Recovering 2884.50 into the noon hour would have triggered a short-squeeze for Friday afternoon. But reacting down to the 2877.00 inflection point was blind-sided by a tariff headline. Its knee-jerk reaction collapsed to 2868.00. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-higher, closing at 2874.00-2875.00. Unfinished business above at 2886.75, 2892.25 and 2895.50 would have to wait. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Friday afternoon.

Overnight action’s new info…
Whether Friday’s pattern would resolve up, or down, another corrective bounce had room up to 2879.75-2881.50. Sunday night immediately began firming and extended up to 2881.75 well before midnight. Its reaction down attacked 2877.00 into Europe’s open where the overnight rally resumed. Fresh overnight highs just probed Friday’s high up to this morning’s 2886.75 bias-up target’s resistance.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Happy New Year! Today’s volume will be thinner because this is the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashanah. Thin volume is also vulnerable to producing the least likely resolutions, or to the biggest detours. One or the other is underway overnight. Friday’s buyers failed to gain traction, so the pullback can extend to lower levels like 2857.00, unless today’s open were to gap up above Friday’s 2884.50 high — which is being tested now. Not triggering the recovery setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish, like extending the pullback down to 2857.00. Meanwhile, relentless overnight trending often either reverses direction at the open, or else extends if not reversed through the open.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2877.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2884.50 would be likely at least to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2888.75 would be likely to exceed the 2886.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.