The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not rejecting the late plunge.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2909.00 had ultimately extended to exit the bias window at fresh session lows down to 2904.00. The afternoon’s 2911.00 bias-up signal triggered, but extending to its 2918.00 was prevented by an afternoon headline that triggered a plunge to 2895.50, closing at 2902.00. Closing under 2909.00 failed to confirm higher trend objectives that were signaled Wednesday, and afternoon sellers gained traction for their effort. But new unfinished business above at 2918.00 suggests the dip will be recovered.
Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing through midnight touched the morning’s 2904.00 low, and greeted Europe’s opens unchanged at yesterday’s 2902.00 close. Collapsing 5 points was retraced back up to 2902.00, but only to 2902.00, and has since extended to attack yesterday’s 2895.50 low to within 1 tick.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thinning volume ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend has two contradictory consequences. While the market is robbed of natural volatility, it is also vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions triggered by artificial catalysts. Yesterday morning’s range around its gap down exemplifies the non-volatility, and the afternoon’s headline plunge reflects the vulnerability. But not all headlines get a reaction, and even while overnight weakness is attributed to continued overnight weakness among emerging markets, yesterday’s low still holds. That doesn’t prevent extending down further this morning, as already suggested by yesterday afternoon’s traction, with unfinished business below at 2892.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2897.50 would be likely to trigger the 2898.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2903.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.