The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Only a pullback?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up soon stalled at 2698.00 instead of extending higher, let alone almost literally exploding higher. Which made the morning likely back-and-fill. It also made the open a position of strength likely to attract an eventual recovery. Backing-and-filling was testing 2684.00 when the first hour ended. Firming into noon greeted the embargo being lifted on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks. The reaction literally exploded higher to 2728.00 during the noon hour, trending up to 2745.00 during the final hour. The day began by testing ‘higher prior lows” from last Tuesday, and ended by attacking 1-1/2 week old highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
Shallow downtrending had dipped back to yesterday afternoon’s prior high down to 2734.50 before midnight. The downtrending has persisted down to 2728.75 — still just probing under yesterday afternoon’s prior high, but now also retracing 61.8% of yesterday afternoon’s last dip.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Confidence that a bottom is forming isn’t nearly is high since yesterday’s explosion was delayed past the open. But the burden of proof was on sellers so long as yesterday’s open had gapped up to allow room for a morning dip, and the burden of proof remains on sellers despite the overnight dip. Last night’s relentless dip is vulnerable to reversing up as the overnight crowd covers, unless the open fails to recover from under a relevant support — relevant support has so far held at the 2728.75 61.8% retracement of yesterday afternoon’s last dip. There’s still room for noise below it on a retest, but its failure would reverse down intraday and potentially target “lower prior highs” at 2707.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2726.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2727.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2731.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2734.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2740.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.