The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Optimism taking a break.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Optimism remained alive and well at Wednesday’s open, regardless of the past two sessions’ fresh lows down to 2530.00. An overnight rally to 2562.00 gapped up, and extended intraday to greet the afternoon’s FOMC statement probing Tuesday’s 2578.00 highs. The knee-jerk reaction spiked up even higher to 2592.00. But it was doomed to failure because the open’s gap up was under Tuesday’s late high. The optimism was reversed back down to 2530.00, which was met on the way to 2500.00 and lower. The 2489.50 low reacted up to spend the final hour ranging back up to 2519.00, closing around 2505.00. Actively bearish WedEX was signaled.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another bounce attacked 2519.00 before rolling over to fresh lows. The slide pierced what is this morning’s 2478.25 bias-down target to 2476.00 at midnight, and bottomed there. Reacting up since then has recovered back above yesterday’s lows, even attacking the upper-end of its final hour’s range at 2518.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A lot of relevant attractions are being neutralized, but the decline still has room down to 2453.00, A durable bottom will have formed when a couple of objectives are recovered through a couple of consecutive closes. None of which precludes another bounce, which the overnight low’s Isolation setup might produce. It will need the open and then the morning to hold above yesterday’s lows, and any less strength would likely resume the decline — even a Globex-Flip setup is trying to form. So, the question is whether sponsorship for a bounce can be generated after punishing recent bounces. Since the answer is probably not, then we’ll anticipate the overnight recovery failing this morning, if not already having failed by the open. Otherwise, I’m going to be suspicious of an Isolation setup, but I’ll still give it a benefit of the doubt until disproved — Santa Claus and his rallies have pulled off miracles before.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2497.75 would be less likely to trigger the 2492.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.