The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Out with a whimper?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s close barely lost 5 points from Thursday’s 2492.00 close. Not for lack of trying, with two overnight probes of higher highs, and a third higher high Friday afternoon. The last peaked 2 points short of its potential to 2525.25 before attacking the morning’s low down to 2477.00, and closing at 2487.00. Three higher highs, one intraday, yet each reaction down barely probed into negative territory. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs were on the cusp of being overbought at the late high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex reacted immediately to the weekend’s favorable China trade tweet from Trump. The open’s gap up retraced 61.8% of Friday’s late drop at 2505.50. Flat-to-higher ranging has recently extended to 2512.50 — still 2-4 points under the retracement’s room for noise, and under Friday’s high.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
With apologies to Eliot, 2018 seems poised to go out not with a bang, but with a whimper. This could be the effect if the algorithms (i.e. hallow men) are turned off while their human oversight is less available. Gapping up and essentially trending up all night has barely even attacked the room for noise back up to Friday’s high. I don’t interpret this muted upside as being potentially bullish restrained optimism, not yet. A lot of buying pressure was expended intraday Friday to prevent its reactions down from becoming a downleg, and that ineffectual optimism may yet have bearish consequences. Meanwhile, Friday’s fresh afternoon high neutralized any structural unfinished business above. Technical unfinished business above at the high’s simultaneously overbought RSIs may still retested up to the calculable 2525.25 objective — neither one prevents a downleg while outstanding, and could enable a downleg/collapse upon being neutralized. All of which is within the context of a temporary bear market rally from last Tuesday night’s 2317.00 low, and the possibility that year-end institutional buying has front-run itself to already be done. Again, I point to the muted overnight gains  has been a temporary bear market rally. Extending higher anyway could extend to the next higher bounce potential at 2548.00-2556.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2507.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2504.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2499.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2495.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.