The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Overnight chop.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s action had promised an active session, and Monday didn’t disappoint. The overnight gap down to 2774.00 had been recovered to fluctuate around Friday’s 2782.50 close up to 2786.50, greeting Monday’s open above prior highs at 2784.00. Having escaped last week’s pattern of rejecting early fresh highs — or, at least, absorbing the pattern when it developed overnight — the morning did almost nothing. Actually, the morning did do one thing, ranging up to 2788.50, before the noon hour extended to 2794.25. No traction was gained during the afternoon, leaving the final hour to fluctuate narrowly sideways. A very late break under 2790.00 collapsed quickly to 2784.00-2785.00, but its timing was too late to be predictive, if it’s even sustainable.

Overnight action’s new info…
The late break proved to be temporary — three times. It was recovered completely soon after the Globex open, back up to Monday’s late sell signal at 2790.75. And then another collapse retested the 2784.00 low. Another recovery was also retraced by another collapse. Yet another recovery finally probed a fresh high up to 2792.00 into Europe’s opens. That’s three recoveries, but now fresh lows are probing yesterday morning’s low down to 2782.50. This leg isn’t a collapse, and there’s no current attempt to recover it.

If, then…
Yesterday’s 2794.25 high tested and held the rally’s next higher objective of 2793.00. There’s room for noise above it that could be tested by another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. But there’s no requirement for another recovery of yesterday’s late drop. This area is the last opportunity to end a correction before starting to require new all-time highs. Regardless, last week’s distribution and rotation out of leadership still threaten to repeat its pattern of rejecting a probe above the prior session’s highs — and a probe above the prior yesterday’s highs would be the likely objective of any post-open rally. Otherwise, even the most bullish longer-term scenario isn’t precluded from launching a pullback here, which is already underway if the open isn’t rallying.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2793.00 would be likely to trigger the 2790.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2787.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2782.00 bias-down signal.