The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Pre-Payrolls chop?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Dropping back down to Tuesday’s lows overnight had all but ensured that Wednesday’s open wouldn’t gap up. And that was the only way to resume rallying immediately since buyers hadn’t gained traction. More so, Tuesday’s lows — and the overnight retests — had narrowly avoided fulfilling their potential down to 2884.50 or 2880.25. But Wednesday’s first hour took care of that, collapsing down to 2877.50. Oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s low require its eventual retest. Meanwhile, a couple of higher lows formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher while triggering the afternoon’s 2888.75 bias-up signal. Stopping 2 points short of its 2995.00 bias-up target, the balance of the afternoon only ranged flat-to-lower back down to within 1 tick of 2884.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding at 2877.50 below and 2995.00 above.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s ranging has persisted overnight in a wide, sideways choppiness. First bouncing back up to 2891.00 didn’t hold, and Europe was greeted by dipping back under Wednesday’s lows down to 2882.00. That’s where and when the dip stopped, at least for now, bouncing to attack yesterday afternoon’s highs near 2893.00. Now another dip is probing 3-4 points back into negative territory and attacking yesterday afternoon’s low down to 2885.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing at or around 2888.00-2889.00 wasn’t decisive enough to assume whether the next “unfinished business” to be resolved is of 2877.50 below or of 2995.00 above. Testing the lower objective first would at least tell us the weakness since last week has probably been defensive posturing ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. That’s the more bullish scenario for greeting the news — testing the lower objective, probably down to 2875.00, and bouncing from its test. Meanwhile, 2995.00 could be probed by another 10 points before even beginning to suggest the pullback is being recovered, instead of just corrected temporarily.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2895.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2884.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2882.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.