The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Range.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
No “unfinished business above” outstanding as of Wednesday’s close for a second consecutive session left the market vulnerable, and a retest of Wednesday’s 2818.00 high was reversed down overnight to 2806.25. Thursday’s opening bounce attacked 2813.00 and quickly reversed down sharply to fresh lows at 2800.25. But the morning’s 2804.00 bias-down target held. In fact, 2804.00 held repeatedly throughout the choppy session. The morning’s recovery to its 2811.00 bias-down signal was retraced to 2804.00 after noon (amid Trump’s interest rate comments). And another recovery to the afternoon’s 2813.25 bias-up signal was retraced to 2804.00, firming a couple of points into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wild. Globex continued firming innocently from Thursday’s late drop and got up to 2810.50. China’s devaluation took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.50. Reacting up had trended through Europe’s opens amid Italian dept drama, returning to Thursday’s 2806.00 close. Trump’s wider tariff threat in response to China took great and immediate effect, triggering a plunge to 2793.00. Reacting up has retraced 61.8% of the plunge to 2801.50 — back within yesterday’s range, again
If, then…
Trending any lower through Friday’s open would have set the tone for extending the drop either to 2791.25 or 2781.00 and 2775.00. Coming so close overnight (twice) to the closer target doesn’t make the farther target any likelier. More important will be whether 2791.25 is yet tested during a timing window, and then whether its test had held through that timing window’s exit. That’s if the overnight bearishness persists through the open — expiration open, which can be surprising — which is currently indicated above yesterday’s lows where an Isolation setup could trigger. It also doesn’t necessarily affect the afternoon’s bearish WedEX, although its influence may be exacerbated.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2794.25 at 9:45 would be likely also to exceed the 2795.50 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2799.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2802.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2805.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.