The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Reacting back up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s pre-open drop from its overnight range had originated suspiciously close to the open. But it was productive, breaking under the range’s 2893.00 low into the 2885.00-2887.00 open, and through it to 2880.00. Bottoming almost immediately began retracing up to 2891.00 during the noon hour. But that was reversed back down to last-minute probe to fresh lows attacking 2877.00. The close was a quick reaction up to 2882.50-2884.00. Several quick reactions interrupted several late probes to fresh lows, preventing each other from gaining traction in either direction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly sideways up to 2884.00 tried collapsing but stopped 3 ticks short of Tuesday’s last-minute low at 2878.00. Apparently that stretched the rubber band deeply enough, as its snap back up recovered above 2884.00 by midnight and attacked 2889.00 by Europe’s opens. Ranging narrowly sideways again since then has maintained positive territory, and just now broke higher to probe 2891.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
There was a lot of pessimism at yesterday’s close, without gaining traction that would require extending down. This doesn’t confirm yesterday’s late pre-open break was sponsored by weak hands. We’ll know that if that pre-open break is retraced entirely — now just 3-5 points higher. Similarly, retracing the late break won’t require extending any higher, regardless of the outstanding attraction of fresh highs at 2892.00. Even if we knew with 100% certainty that fresh highs would be probed, today, nothing prevents post-open weakness that saves fresh highs for a reaction to this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Shortly before the open, ECB events are a reliable catalyst for volatility and choppiness. Already testing 2902.00 before FOMC Minutes would be vulnerable to reversing back down, notwithstanding an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction and the room for noise up to 2911.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2891.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2884.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2886.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2894.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2891.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.