The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Reacting up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to Thursday’s 2782.00 noon hour high paused only briefly before extending up to Wednesday’s pivotal 2787.50 highs. And then not much longer before extending to fresh intraday highs at 2794.50 by noon. Stopping short of Wednesday night’s 2798.00 “new Globex trend extreme,” the bias environment fell 2781.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. But the final hour recovered to overlap Wednesday’s 2790.75 high at the cash session close. Extending higher through the futures close reached 2795.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
A Trump China trade tweet announced that progress was sufficient to abandon Friday’s deadline for hiking tariffs. The tweet came only 20 minutes before Sunday night’s Globex open, easily triggering a gap up to 2799.50. Follow-through to 2803.50 ended the reaction as quickly as it had begun. Narrow sideways ranging eventually dipped to 2794.50 testing gap-to-gap 61.8% support. Its reaction improved steadily to attack earlier highs by Europe’s opens, then extended to fresh highs at 2805.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
We have to wonder what last night’s organic open would have done, if not for the tweet’s artificial catalyst. Its immediate effect proved underwhelming, quickly peaking within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target. Recovering its retracement to fresh highs is now a retest of prior resistance, and not necessarily a breakout with traction. The more recent fresh high does now have complexity that the original surge lacked, qualifying as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest. Fresh highs maintained during Monday’s opening 15 minutes would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Credible for extending, but not required. Reacting down would be credible for retracing back into Friday’s range. A likely attraction below would be Wednesday’s 2790.75 high, which Friday’s close was still overlapping, and which was maintaining Thursday’s Isolation setup that is hanging by a thread.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2696.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2799.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2806.00 would be likely to exceed the 2803.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.