The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Rejection, no. Isolation, maybe.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Optimism was alive and, well, waning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events. The morning’s sponsorship triggered bias-up but left its 2798.00 target outstanding. It was attacked it to within 2 points at the morning’s retest of the 2796.00 overnight high, and becomes “unfinished business above.” Drifting lower through the noon hour greeted the FOMC statement at 2792.00. Its reaction down extended to 2781.50, which was retested after bouncing to 2793.50. The cash session close was testing 2779.00-2780.00, and futures settled another 2 ticks lower.
Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy ranging around Wednesday’s close eventually trended down, breaking to fresh lows after midnight. Bottoming soon after Europe’s opens, bouncing since then has retraced back up to yesterday’s 2779.00-2780.00 close, testing natural resistance at unchanged.
If, then…
Isolating the probe under yesterday’s low to the overnight could form an Isolation setup targeting a retest of yesterday’s high. Just holding above yesterday’s 2779.00-2780.00 late lows would be less convincing than to recover Monday-Tuesday’s 2783.00-2784.00 support. Recovering 2788.00-2788.75 through the open would be most convincing, and could also serve by proxy to invert yesterday’s late bearish WedEX. Perhaps that was only a temporary product of defensive posturing ahead of this morning’s ECB policy statement and Draghi Q&A. Otherwise, rallying this morning from a shallower open is still possible, even without exploiting the Isolation opportunity, or inverting the bearish WedEX. Delaying a rally this morning isn’t likely to rally at all, because then the paradigm is probably already shifting to the downside.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2780.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2773.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2786.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2788.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.