The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Reversal alert, and caveat.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Yhursday’s 2769.50 open was only slightly negative, but it was well under Wednesday night’s 2785.75 high. That triggered the Globex reversal setup to produce a bearish Thursday morning that almost touched 2750.00. A corrective bounce up to 2763.50 was eventually reversed to fresh session lows at 2747.00. Sellers gained traction for their efforts, but the late drop still stopped optimistically short of Tuesday’s 2746.00 post-open low. A bounce closed back above the morning’s 2750.25-2751.50 lows, but under 2756.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Quickly dipping attacked 2749.00 before reversing up more substantially. This morning’s 2759.00 bias-up signal held the first multi-hour consolidation. It broke higher after midnight, extending effortlessly through Europe’s opens, to probe 1 point above this morning’s 2765.50 bias-up target.

If, then…
Another night, another reversal setup. So, another reversal setup caveat, too. First, the setup. Overnight action has trended relentlessly in one direction. And not arbitrarily, but back to the bias-up signal. Back to the bias-up target. Through yesterday afternoon’s high (which printed before the bias environment had begun lapsing), and through yesterday’s late-morning high for added effect. Exiting the open above a prior high suggests that new sponsorship intends to extend the trending intraday. Yesterday’s last-minute bounce doesn’t disqualify an open above yesterday afternoon’s high from forming a “session-long rally” setup… And now, the caveat. Session-long rally setups can be as bearish as they would have been bullish, if the fully formed setup doesn’t trigger. How? Relentless overnight trending can often inhibit reinforcements at the open, having become more attractive to counter-trend sponsorship. We’ll know through the open, by whether a probed resistance is maintained or rejected. Regardless, be careful not to dismiss that post-open indication, especially if the overnight rally is maintained despite yesterday afternoon’s sellers having gained traction and having been only minimally productive before the close.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2763.50 would be likely to trigger the 2759.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2757.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2768.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2765.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.