The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sellers got their beauty sleep.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow overnight range had dipped only slightly and briefly before Friday’s expriration open, and before bouncing back to earlier overnight highs testing 2492.00. A post-open headline reaction surged to 2508.00. Having stretched the rubber band once again, the market snapped back down, extending eventually down to new lows at 2409.25. The afternoon was influenced by a bearish WedEX, as liquidity evaporated ahead of a 3-1/2 day weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex open gapped down to meet the 2402.00-2405.00 target that had been established intraday Friday. Bouncing back to unchanged extended through a 2419.00 buy signal on the way to its 2434.00 target. A 7-1/2 dip was recovered to retest the high into Europe’s opens. But any influence of ES stability was quickly absorbed, and a 13-point dip just begat a 31-point collapse down to fresh lows at 2395.50 — testing this morning’s 2398.25 bias-down target, and having sufficient complexity to form a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires intraday retest.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Last night I published a few thoughts about the potential for a “bottom,” (here, if you haven’t yet read it). Its two primary thrusts are that 1) we should be aware that a near-term low can appear at any time, and 2) a near-term low can be under Friday’s close by triple digits, perhaps 2,000 Dow points or more. Today’s restrained volume and early close make it a wild card — it’s difficult to get sponsorship that starts trending, and difficult to stop if it starts. Regardless of the holiday factors, delaying this overnight reaction helps today to avoid an UNusual meltdown. Another usual meltdown today would have room down to the next lower objective at 2345.00-2361.00. An intraday rally is unlikely due to the bearish WedEX influence, but 2454.00 would be its likely objective.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open under 2416.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2403.00 would be likely to trigger the 2405.00 bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2424.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2421.00 bias-up target.