The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Shallow potential for a shallow bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s initial dip down to 2704.25 had gradually recovered 7-8 points to unchanged. Briefly probing higher to attack 2715.00 was reversed back down to 2704.25. “If at first,” right? Well… The half-hour preceding Wednesday’s open recovered back up to unchanged and the open quickly extended through it to probe the overnight highs. The noon hour’s higher highs touched the afternoon’s 2727.25 bias-up target, before bias-up was even triggered, so the bias environment only ranged sideways. The final hour’s failed attempt to break higher was instead snapped back down to 2717.50, where a snap back up barely recovered back above the morning’s highs to 2723.00. WedEX triggered a bearish signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday’s late recovery firmed only a little higher into Globex’s open, and then began reversing down. Gradually at first, retracing 61.8% of the bounce back down to 2720.00. The rest was retraced into Europe’s opens to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2715.75 bias-down signal (defensive posturing?). Since then, the market is ranging around yesterday’s late 2717.50 low.
If, then…
Several factors have warned us that yesterday’s rally was sponsored by weak hands. The pre-open defensive posturing, rallying sharply to peak during the unpredictive noon hour, peaking during that window at a target, and holding a test of “higher prior lows.” All of which could be overcome by gapping up today above the 2732.00 upper-end of those higher prior lows, the opposite of which is indicated by the overnight action. Any shallower post-open strength would be vulnerable to failure. Now the question is whether that bearishness takes control post-open to retrace the rally back down to Tuesday’s lows. Posturing defensively ahead of Europe’s opens hasn’t reacted with a relief rally, so repeating the same sentiment could actually restart yesterday’s late reversal down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2714.00 would be likely to trigger the 2715.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2723.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.