The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Skipping only a heartbeat.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Greeting Wednesday’s open after collapsing overnight stumbled into a choppy morning. The wide 2708.50-2721.25 first swing was followed by 3 narrower, all supported by the overnight low’s base. Then the FOMC Minutes triggered a surge, before the afternoon bias environment had even come within view of lapsing. Tuesday’s closing bounce to 2727.25 was retraced, and extended up to 2733.00. That’s flat with Monday’s close, which was also trying to recover the 2732.00 upper-end of the prior Monday afternoon’s consolidation.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s last-minute cash session high had started reacting down into the futures close, equating to 2731.00-2733.00. Globex quickly extended the reaction down further to attack 2720.00, where the direction almost immediately began reversing back up. Trending up both into Europe’s opens (no defensive posturing), and out, was retraced back to yesterday’s 2733.00 high. Its reaction down to 2727.25 is now trying to resume the initial overnight dip’s recovery.
If, then…
Wednesday’s recovery came from an overnight decline. The decline was substantial and poised to be very productive. That might trump the otherwise bullish seasonality of the upcoming 3-day U.S. holiday weekend. It’s not affecting Thursday’s open, but we may be discussing it tomorrow. Not recovering initial weakness through Thursday’s open would still be credible for retracing much or all of Wednesday’s recovery — perhaps even resuming the prior night’s decline. Meanwhile, not posturing defensively ahead of Europe’s opens has departed from the recent pattern. And the departure is being rewarded by extending higher without delay. Probing above yesterday’s highs this morning remains likely, which the seasonal bullishness could exploit for more upside follow-through, unless rejected early similar to Tuesday’s open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2734.00 would be likely to trigger the 2732.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2730.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.