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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still optimistic. – If, Then… Market Timing

The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Still optimistic.

By Rod David | April 5, 2019 - 7:08 am

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday wasn’t likely to trend unless trending was established early. Which wasn’t likely, when greeting the open unchanged from Wednesday’s 2880.00 close. But the open soon surged to 2885.75, neutralizing the required gap-fill back up to Wednesday’s 2884.75 open above all prior trend highs. Bias parameters created an attraction below at 2872.50, which was tested down to 2871.00 during the noon hour — recovering before the noon hour’s exit. Trending was unlikely, and the trending attempt failed. So the balance of the session gravitated to the range’s earlier upper-end at of 2884.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
As if trying to rekindle the magic of Tuesday night, a favorable China trade headline at 8:00 ET triggered a surge. Tuesday night’s reaction had surged 13 points and extended to 21 points, probing fresh highs. Last night’s surge 7-point surge didn’t probe fresh highs, and didn’t extend. At least, not yet. Europe’s opens touched Wednesday’s 2889.25, which didn’t require being touched.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Bouncing back to yesterday’s opens wasn’t required yesterday, so that qualifies as last-minute optimism. Probing yesterday’s highs overnight is more last-minute optimism, too. Both can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective. Touching Wednesday’s high overnight or only piercing it without complexity doesn’t reflect strong-handed sponsorship. So, resolving up this morning would likely put into play the next higher objective at 2902.00. Meanwhile, favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news could fail be reversed back down before having a chance to resolve up this morning. Finally, this being a Friday, reacting in either direction — initially or ultimately — would be vulnerable extending into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There are no preliminary indications ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Posted in members-only, Pre-market Tour, S&P, The First Trade