The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Struggling back.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to 2863.50, which was the two-week old prior high. Probing higher through the noon hour neutralized unfinished business at 2866.25 and 2873.00. No-bias triggered as price drifted lower through the afternoon bias environment. The session’s close was back at 2863.50, representing indecision, and also touching the two-week old prior high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late news has had a big effect. Price had already turned down organically Tuesday afternoon, and headlines steepened the dive through the 2861.00 futures close. Plunging to 2852.00 and extending to 2847.00 into and out of the Globex open was retraced to 2857.50 by midnight. A 6-point reaction down was recovered into and out of Europe’s opens, but only started breaking higher 90 minutes ago and is now filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2861.50 futures close — 15 points off the low.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
A lot of ground was covered by yesterday afternoon’s decline, and another 161.8% into early evening. So, its 61.8% retracement would also fill the gap back to yesterday’s 2863.50 cash session close. That’s also yesterday’s open. All being resistance, which evokes an important question: As late as yesterday’s news was, and as slowly as the market appreciated it before the close, has the intraday crowd yet fully reacted to it? To the degree it hasn’t, opening back in negative territory would be that much more inviting to post-open selling, and that much more difficult to recover. Probing into positive territory would still have a lot of resistance above to prevent fully retracing yesterday’s highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2855.50 would be likely to trigger the 2857.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2859.00 would less likely to trigger bias-down, and above 2865.00 at 10:15 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.