The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sunny side down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Thursday night’s lowest lows in three weeks at 2766.75 wasn’t the market hunkering down defensively ahead of the day’s ECB events. It was chipping away at support, as if any remained. Both the likelihood for attempting to isolate the fresh lows, and the likelihood for the attempt to fail, were already obvious before the open. A bounce barely attacked 2782.25 where a sell signal was easily triggered before beginning to collapse into and out of the open. Simply for having revisited 2782.25 Wednesday, the next lower objective at 2758.75 was put into play. Thursday’s 10:15 bias timing window had blown through it to the collapse’s 2747.00 low. Stair-stepping back up to 2766.25 through the noon hour narrowly avoided triggering bias-up, which opened the door to another downleg. Fresh session lows next targeting 2739.00 encountered support upon attacking 2743.25, bouncing to 2754.00-2755.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Pessimism is greeting this morning’s Employment Situation report, probing under yesterday’s lows. Which is unusual, as I had noted during yesterday’s post-close Market Wrap, that overnight action ahead of payrolls tends to be uneventful. But flat-to-lower ranging at the Globex open had soon dipped down to this morning’s 2748.75 bias-down signal and bounced back up to 2755.50. Trending down again greeted Eueope’s opens at the 2741.25 bias-down target, which is now being retested despite ranging sideways since then.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
[All prices quoted basis Jun] Resolving down from Thursday’s late bounce, and fulfilling 2739.00, would next target 2727.25 and 2720.50. The pessimism of already probing fresh lows overnight might be bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, a favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report could first test 2758.75 as noise, or even “higher prior lows” at 2775.25. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. And this being a Friday after having trended down sharply to a fresh multi-week extreme, intraday volatility is likely to persist well into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.