The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking another shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night had gradually, relentlessly, retraced almost all of the intraday recovery from its 2685.50 morning lows up to 2705.50. Friday’s opening blip-up was reversed back down immediately to probe fresh lows down to 2681.00. That was the decline’s next lower target, and it was the third post-open probe of fresh lows. Like the two prior, it reacted up sharply, too. Perhaps because it was met as the bias environment began lapsing, its reaction was more productive and durable. At the afternoon bias environment’s entry I noted that the last dip had trapped sellers. Although sellers were not marginalized, back above 2695.00 got a benefit of the doubt for extending higher, and the balance of the session rallied back up to 2702.00 before the final hour. Narrow ranging broke sharply higher during Friday’s last 5 minutes up to 2708.00-2709.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s last-minute 10-point surge hardly seemed organic, but it hasn’t been rejected. Sunday night’s open tried extending it by blipping-up to 2712.50. Its reaction settled down to 2700.50 and finally resolved up at Europe’s opens. Another surge up to 2721.50 is now reacting back down to 2712.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s close AT 2708.00-2709.00 resistance doesn’t itself equate to recovering it. Even if the overnight extension had not stopped short of “higher prior lows” at 2722.00 it wouldn’t qualify as testing it. The recovery attempt won’t be entirely reliable for extending higher, but it would be credible so long as this morning’s bias-up is triggered, and no timing window is exited back under a relevant level. Currently, the overnight high’s reaction down is testing Thursday’s 2712.00 opening print as support, which should hold if the rally’s momentum remains intact, targeting a probe above last week’s 2737.50 highs. Back under Thursday’s 2705.50 open-close overlap would help to indicate the rally had failed..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2713.50 would be likely to trigger the 2711.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2708.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.