The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking off in time?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Favorable China trade war news triggered Thursday night’s 35-point surge from 2731.00. Its optimism could be added to Thursday’s pre-close optimism, a last-minute break higher above afternoon ranging, without gaining traction, ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings. And now there was optimism ahead of Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report. Even more optimistically, AAPL’s negative reaction was largely ignored. So, greeting Friday’s open at 2751.00 extended down sharply to probe its target by several ticks down to 2699.50 as the noon hour ended. Bouncing to 2728.00 ranged sideways into the 2722.00-2724.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending narrow ranging has finally broken out. Is it a false break? Sunday night’s open had immediately slid 9-11 points to attack 2713.00, and then to test it. A 7-point range up to 2720.00 persisted through Europe’s opens before finally breaking. Now a 3-hour old rally is starting to probe above Friday afternoon’s highs, and probing this morning’s 2728.50 bias-up signal by 1 point.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s slide was by definition a surprise, as the overnight rally was reversed from well into positive territory to deeply negative. Turning a 28-point gain into a 28-point loss expended a lot of selling pressure, but no traction was gained from the effort as the two prior sessions’ lows held a brief afternoon probe. So, converting Friday’s drop into a new downleg all but requires resuming this morning to fresh lows, or resolving down after shallow backing-and-filling this morning. Initially backing-and-filling this morning also describes a recovery’s early stages. And overnight action doesn’t currently indicate resuming the decline, not unless the bias-up signal were to hold a post-open test and trigger no-bias, or its current test is already reversing down pre-open.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2730.50 would be likely to trigger the 2728.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2725.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.