The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The disappearing bounce.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report had kept overnight action range bound, wide and choppy between 2900.00-2915.00. The report’s volatile reaction still greeted the open flat at 2906.00. The relative calm was a trap, luring in buyers to try resuming Thursday afternoon’s recovery. The trap was sprung at 2914.00, which reversed down to slide 41 points to 2873.25 into the afternoon bias environment. The drop ignored the morning’s no-bias environment to extend under the morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment. The afternoon’s bias-down target was neutralized to within 1 point and RSIs weren’t oversold. Bouncing 21 points into the final hour up to 2874.50 then ranged sideways into the weekend.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially popped-up to 2898.25, but then soon dipped 10 points to attack 2888.00, which is this morning’s bias-down signal. The range persisted, bouncing again to its upper-end, and reversing back down to greet Europe’s opens back at the range’s lower-end. But the retest didn’t hold as the reversal extended down to 2882.50. Now a bounce probing 2888.00 is reversing back down, too.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
“Unfinished business” from Friday morning’s no-bias trending under 2900.25 might not be retraced this morning if there’s another overnight low under 2882.50, especially under 2777.00. Holding a retest of Friday’s 2873.25 low should be isolated, either overnight or to the morning to prevent a more substantial downleg. Friday’s close avoided a more substantial downleg by closing back above 2879.00. The next lower objective would be 2850.00, retracing the leg prior to the month-old rally. The only path to avoiding downside pressure this morning may require no less than to open in positive territory — not as an Isolation setup, but to indicate that the thinner Columbus Day trading is inhibiting sellers. Meanwhile, keep in mind its thinner holiday trading will make trending difficult to start, and then difficult stop.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2891.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2888.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2885.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.