The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… The discounting is in.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence wasn’t. A “new Globex trend extreme” had formed overnight, which was neutralized by piercing it 6 ticks up to 2947.00 during the pre-open minutes. Although that had avoided the earlier threat of a Globex-Flip setup under 2938.00, the morning dipped back down to 2938.50. Other than gapping up, bouncing to 2944.00 was the only bullish behavior. But that reversed  down just when the WedEX’s influence should have pushed price higher. Quite the opposite, the afternoon resolved down to its 2932.50 bias-down target through the expiration close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Saturday we discussed whether Friday’s post-open decline was defensive posturing ahead of Monday’s new tariffs on China. Even if already fully discounted, a knee-jerk reaction to the news would be normal. So, Sunday night’s gap down to 2929.50 wasn’t surprising or unusual. A pattern soon formed that targeted 2921.25-2923.00, and its upper-end was touched. Bouncing back into the range held up through Europe’s opens, inspiring confidence for retesting the open’s gap up to 2930.00. That has formed an Ascending Triangle.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Lower price doesn’t necessarily equate to traction. We applied that to Friday afternoon’s shallow relentless drop back to 2836.00 support — lower lows were probed too late to be relevant. We’re now applying it to last night’s gap down. Unless selling pressure exits a window under a relevant level to gain traction, it is actually pent-up buying pressure. We’re not relying on the WedEX to be  influential this morning if it wasn’t on Friday afternoon, but it should be very influential if it does compensate for the delay. Meanwhile, while the open’s gap disqualifies a Globex-flip setup, probing Friday’s lows overnight does create potential for an Isolation setup. All of which is probably premised on China tariffs being discounted. Speaking of whom, we haven’t heard from China, and retaliatory tariffs would deserve at least another knee-jerk reaction down to 2919.25 before suggesting anything more substantial.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2936.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2932.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.