The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Too little, too late?

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow sideways range had broken through its 2926.50 upper-end to 2932.00 in reaction to GDP. Having originated 60-90 minutes pre-open, the breakout was reversed back down through the open to the overnight range’s lower-end at the 2919.50 bias-down targte. The reversal attempt failed, likely marginalizing sellers for the day. Separately, holding tests of both bias-down parameters put into play offsetting tests of the 2934.00 and 2940.75 bias-up parameters. They weren’t required to be met because the rejection was late, but their tests were fulfilled anyway. Also met was “unfinished business” from prior sessions at 2942.00 and 2942.75 by Friday’s last-minute surge to 2942.75. The surge came too late for its new high close to create new unfinished business.

Overnight action’s new info…
A painstakingly narrow 2940.50-2943.00 range developed well through midnight before showing any signs of life. It was a brief surge to 2944.75, and then a reaction down to 2941.25. Another surge to higher highs attacked 2947.00, but no less brief, as its reaction down fell to lower lows at 2940.00. And now a consolidation there is probing lower. Now the 2939.35 earlier Globex low is being probed as support. Each of the overnight probes to higher highs was a singular surge, and each reacted back down under Friday’s high. So, neither qualifies as a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
New trend highs overnight that don’t qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” does not prevent their intraday retest, but it’s not required. No other “unfinished business” above is outstanding, but that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway. Borrowing (and slightly twisting) Newton’s first law, the uptrend remains intact until a reversal setup appears. And then that setup must make impact. A bearish Globex-flip setup is trying to form, as an overnight probe above the prior 2942.75 intraday high has been reversed to probe under the 2939.35 earlier Globex low. Meanwhile, be aware that Friday-Monday setups are less reliable, and also breaking under the 2935.75 last relative low would be helpful confirmation. If fully formed but not triggered, the setup’s consequence should be as bullish as it could have been bearish, which means influencing the morning’s trend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2946.50 would be likely to trigger the 2944.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2936.50 bias-down signal.