The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Traction giving way.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s shallow slide had tested 2729.00 at its late low. Bouncing to 2740.00 in reaction to a Trump/China trade tweet was reversed to probe fresh lows attacking 2723.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its entry isolated the probe, and reversed momentum up to greet the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes just under Wednesday 2745.00 high. Its reaction up to 2-week old highs at 2754.50 was retraced entirely as the final hour dipped back under the noon hour’s 2742.00 high to test the afternoon bias environment’s 2738.00 low.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late low supported a sideways narrowing range developed into Europe’s opens. Then support gave way. Trending to fresh lows has just touched what is this morning’s 2729.25 bias-down target.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. Closing any lower — back under the bias environment’s low instead of just testing it — would have invalidated the upside traction. Unless the open has also retraced Thursday morning’s low, retesting Thursday’s high is still possible this morning — if not also trending above it. The overnight dip isn’t helping that bullish setup, and the bias-down target test could be the line in the sand that shifts post-open trending back down. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2734.75 would be likely to trigger the 2736.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2741.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.