The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trying to get unstuck.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s eventual slide had fulfilled the intraday’s “unfinished business below” at 2721.50. The recovery attempt failed, and Tuesday’s cash session was greeted by a larger and steeper drop to 2712.50 before the open. And that was extended to 2703.25 through the first half-hour. But that was also the end of the downside momentum. No upside momentum replaced it, so several wide swings defined a 11-12 point range that gradually pierced lower and lower lows down to 2700.50. The last half-hour bounced back up to the range’s last relative high at 2711.00-2712.00. It had become too late anyway to recover anything predictive, or to offset that the range had gained no traction either way.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s post-open range has largely held overnight, but for a brief probe above it. The Globex open had quickly retraced yesterday’s late surge by 61.8% to 2704.50, but it was eventually recovered back up to 2711.00-2712.00. Dipping to 2707.00 ahead of Europe’s opens was also recovered, and briefly extended to attack 2715.00. That was retraced as quickly back down to retest 2707.00, before recovering again to retest 2711.00-2712.00 — and being a 61.8% retracement of the earlier brief attack on 2715.00, its calculable resistance has pushed price back down to attack 2707.50.
If, then…
One of the instructions from Tuesday’s Market Wrap was that gapping up today above yesterday morning’s 2715.50 high would be credible for bouncing intraday. Both its resistance and its relevance are confirmed by having tested it overnight to within 3 ticks, and then reversing back down 8-1/2 points to that leg’s origin. Retracing that overnight high by 61.8% is calculable resistance, and happens to coincide with the natural resistance of yesterday afternoon’s highs. Their resistance has combined to push price back down sharply, but not yet irrecoverably. Overcoming resistance could rally through the morning. Otherwise, it’s not too late to greet the open back down at yesterday afternoon’s 2701.00 lows to try snapping back up again. But failing to hold the low would be credible for probing fresh lows, to 2695.00-2696.00 and possibly to 2689.00 or 2682.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2707.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2703.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2711.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2716.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2713.50 would actually be likely to also trigger bias-up.