The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Trying to recover.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s pattern was a tale of two cities, one bearish and the other bullish. It begins by probing fresh relative lows overnight and then gapping down to 2732.00 in reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report. The week-long decline’s next lower target at 2727.25 held a couple of tests through the bias timing window, and the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. The balance of the morning retraced the payrolls reaction back up to 2741.50, which the noon hour retraced back down to the morning’s test of 2727.25. Then came the bullish tale, as the balance of the session rallied back up to 2748.00 and 2752.50. The moral of the story was still negative, ending under Thursday’s 2754.00-2755.00 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s Globex session has done what Friday afternoon’s rally did not, finally retesting Thursday’s close. A weak open dipped as low as 2741.75 before beginning to retrace, recovering all of the opening drop and more. Attacking 2756.00 by midnight, and testing 2758.00 into Europe’s opens, has settled back under 2756.00 — still several points into positive territory.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s reaction to the pre-open payrolls report was exacerbated by the impending two days of illiquidity. The afternoon’s rally retraced it, but didn’t reject it. The 2732.00 open’s gap under prior lows wants to be retested from above, which could trigger a deeper pullback targeting 2720.50. Gapping open above Friday’s range would be vulnerable to a detour from retesting Friday’s open, perhaps up to 2775.00-2776.00. Gapping up only to resistance — such as this morning’s 2758.00 bias-up target — would be vulnerable to snapping back down into and through Friday’s range to fresh lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2753.00 would be likely to trigger the 2750.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2748.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.