The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Was it enough?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday paid the price, or start paying it, for Friday not actually having corrected Wednesday and Thursday’s surges. Meanwhile, Monday was also the second consecutive session to probe fresh highs and then reverse back into negative territory. That’s less relevant for Friday, which isn’t as relevant of a session, but the combination is distributive anyway. Monday’s 2724.25 fell back into “lower prior highs” at Friday afternoon’s range. RSIs were only on the cusp of being overbought, which would otherwise be “unfinished business” above. And unfinished business below was left outstanding at 2721.50. But both recent sessions avoided closing negative, and the ongoing trend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, so there’s not yet a trend reversal signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging narrowly between 2728.00-2731.00 started breaking lower on China’s disappointing economic data. Extending to 2720.50 fulfilled Monday’s unfinished business below. Its reaction bounced into and out of Europe’s opens on the way up to 2727.00. Its 61.8% retracement down to this morning’s 2724.00 bias-down signal was recovered to attack 2729.00. That’s unchanged from yesterday’s close, and natural resistance, which has reacted down to attack 2724.00.
If, then…
The likelihood for a failed probe lower wasn’t necessarily fulfilled by recovering the overnight dip. It did neutralize the nearest attraction below, and is trying to avoid triggering the bias-down signal. The recovery so far is only back to unchanged, which is also natural resistance. Triggering bias-down is still possible, and would be credible for probing Thursday afternoon’s low under 2713.00. Otherwise, rallying this morning could be limited to 2737.50, or a retest of yesterday’s highs — which would be bullish if it were to avoid snapping back down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2725.25 would be less likely to trigger the 2724.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2727.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2732.25 bias-up signal.